Thursday, September 23, 2010

Warren Buffet : We are still in Recession ???

Today 09/23/2010,

Legendary Investor Warren Buffet says we are still in Recession,
I totally agree with the could we be out of recession, look at the real data, not the numbers...the numbers are distorted.  We still have over 16 million unemployed and growing, GDP going down.  This is really bad.
“I think we're in a recession until real per capital GDP gets back to where it was. That is not the way the National Bureau of Economic Research measures it,” Buffett tells CNBC.

“The average American is below where he was before or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession. And we're not gonna be out of it for awhile, but we will get out of it.”

On 09/14/2010, 
In remarks to the Montana Economic Development Summit, Mr. Buffett said that things are looking up for the US economy. He said “We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board.”

He went on say he does not see the sour sentiment as expressed in the media over the past several months. “I don’t see that in our businesses. I see we’re employing more people than a month ago, two months ago.”
I understand and agree that businesses and economies are dynamic, changes every second.  Mr. Buffet felt different on 9/14 than what he feels today but Holy Cow...the stock markets are going up the economic indicators are still bad and getting worse, this is stupendously confusing... what do you have to say?

Monday, September 20, 2010

Monday Dip never came :(

Here are some of the headlines from   Most of them are negative and the stock markets shoots up....any logic behind this?   Oh...did I say volume so far at 12 ET is running lower than the last couple of weeks.

CNBC Headline Wrap link:
And it goes on and on....

It looks extremely overbought and fragile, it can still go a little higher but it's waiting to take the fastest elevator down...get ready for the ride.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Typical OPEX week!

Another typical OPEX week. This being options expiration week most of the averages were being held at some interesting numbers SPX closed at 1125 interesting because at SPY 113 it had 104k+ open call interests, SPY 114 had 110k+ and so on. All of these options expired worthless. Some Free markets we have here for us. Isn't it? Yes, of course, SEC is in control of everything they wouldn't let anyone control the Stock markets....I got that. So what do you think is coming for next week? There is a lot that can happen between now and the market opens on Monday. Personally, I think "THEY" have an agenda, which is not let this market drop and the market is extremely overbought as it is, it is only going to take ONE negative event over the weekend to start the Monday with big gap what do you think?

Thursday, September 16, 2010

How Disgusting is it?

1) U.S. Poverty Rate Increasing!  How comforting is that?  MarketWatch reported today about increasing poverty in the USA where the median household income is consistently falling down.  This is extremely contradictory considering the current rally in the Stock markets... What is your take on it?

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The poverty rate rose to 14.3% in 2009, the highest since 1994, up from 13.2% in 2008, the Census Bureau reported Thursday. Last year there were a record 43.6 million people in poverty. Meanwhile, real median household income in 2009 was $49,777, not statistically different from the prior year. Real median income fell 1.8% for family households, and rose 1.6% for nonfamily households. Also, the number of people with health insurance fell to 253.6 million in 2009 from 255.1 million in 2008, the first year that the number of people with health insurance has decreased since 1987, when the government started collecting comparable data. The number of uninsured rose to 50.7 million from 46.3 million."

2)  U.S. Unemployment Rate at all time high and going up!  This is extremely comforting, Yes.  The U3 unemployment numbers that are reported recently at 9.6% in August 2010 which is pretty high but guess what the U3 numbers don't do justice to the REAL numbers, U6.  The U6 numbers are pretty close to 17% which is pretty much close to 20 million Americans out of jobs.  Personally, I think this number is even higher as there is no sure shot way of recording the EXACT numbers for this.  Now, this if extremely disgusting because you see people all around you who are out of jobs and either on one or multiple government sponsored benefits programs.  These people are not spending their money (well they don't have any money in the first place) like how they used to in good times, obviously.  They are barely making it by purchasing the bare minimum groceries and food items at discount retailers like Costco and Sams' Club or Walmarts.  They are not buying any TV's or electronics (yet Best Buy reports positive results yesterday and the stock shoots up, go figure).  Interesting link, PortalSeven 

So back in March 2009 the U3 numbers were 8.6%  when the stock market started its rally, currently the U3 numbers are at all time high at 9.6% and the market is breaking all kids of records, what's up with that?
3) ForeClosure Rate going up!  The foreclosure rate increased in August 2010 from previous month (according to  The average home price declined.  These are very disturbing and sad statistics and yet the stock market goes up.  Do you really believe in this rally?
4) GDP going down and the stock market (nasdaq, S&P, Dow, Rusell) shoots up.  Go figure.
5) Consumer Confidence is going down and the stock market still goes up!
Today FedEx reported record earnings but the CEO warned about some not very enthusiastic numbers in 2011 and they are laying off 1700 employees.  FedEX, UPS & DHL are considered to be a good barometer on the entire US economy.  If they are seeing a slow down then it must not be very good.  Personally my take on the whole scene is very negative.  How long can the PPT (plunge protection team / Government) pump up the stock market ?  Last 11 trading sessions (at NDX, SPX, DJI, & RUT) were UP days at a dropping volume, most of the point gains happened before the market opened.  A good chunk of traders and investors don't even get to ACT on their plans..... How disgusting is that?  Any thoughts?